Dayton v. Kennedy

Returning Senator Mark Dayton to the Ranks of the Idle Rich in 2006

9/27/2004

Even Money

Jon Lauck has already made the case that the one marginally competitive race that Tom Daschle has ever had was his first, in 1986 against an inept Republican incumbent, James Abdnor. Moreover, he won at the nadir of the farm crisis that swept away many prairie state Republicans during Reagan's "six year itch".

So what kind of competition has Daschle had since '86? Well, in 1992 he was matched against Charlene Haar and garnered nearly 65% of the vote in a year the senior Bush could only muster 41% of the vote in the presidential contest. In 1998 the Republicans were running on Monicagate and little else. Ron Schmidt was kept to 36% of the vote faring like nearly every other Republican challenger that year.

The question is can Tom Daschle be reelected in one of the most conservative states in the Union while promising the premier antiwar propagandist of our time that he will "do better"? While facing his most articulate and best financed challenger? While an incumbent Republican president will be registering a 25-30 point margin in the state?

Even money seems generous.

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