Dayton v. Kennedy

Returning Senator Mark Dayton to the Ranks of the Idle Rich in 2006

11/04/2004

Senate Predictions 2004: Not Bad

If I exercise my mulligan with Alaska, I was incorrect on one of 9 contested Senate races. Pete Coors came up short against Colorado Attorney General Ken Salazar. 8 for 9. Not bad. I'll put my predictions up against Professor Larry Sabato or Charlie Cook any day.

The bottom line is that the Senate gains 6 genuine conservatives in Isakson, Burr, DeMint, Vitter, Martinez and the dragon-slayer John Thune.

Time to make progress on the federal judiciary.

1 Comments:

  • At 11/09/2004 06:26:00 PM, Blogger Grey said…

    A few things to keep in mind about Alaskan politics:

    The entire state population is that of a small city, less then a million, and we are spread throughout the largest state in the union in three main cities, hundreds of communities, native populations, and old hippies. It's hard to get a good representative sample while polling.

    Alaska is a heavily Republican (not conservative, sigh) state.

    The polls in the last three election cycles consistently under-polled Republicans.

    Rule of thumb, if a poll shows a state-wide race lead of five points or less for a Democrat, then the Republican candidate is in the lead or tied.

    So you can be excused for calling the Alaska senate race wrong.

    Not that you really care, but hey, I'm from Alaska and saw your post.

     

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